Preseason Rankings
Colorado St.
Mountain West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#180
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.8#102
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#175
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#192
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.1% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 14.4
.500 or above 32.3% 34.7% 10.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.6% 29.1% 13.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 10.7% 18.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round1.7% 1.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.80.1 - 1.8
Quad 1b0.3 - 1.80.3 - 3.6
Quad 21.3 - 4.31.6 - 7.9
Quad 33.8 - 6.35.4 - 14.1
Quad 47.1 - 3.412.5 - 17.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-66 90%    
  Nov 14, 2018 251   Montana St. W 79-75 74%    
  Nov 19, 2018 100   Louisiana L 74-79 32%    
  Nov 20, 2018 179   Florida Gulf Coast L 76-77 50%    
  Nov 21, 2018 79   South Dakota St. L 75-82 26%    
  Nov 27, 2018 104   Southern Illinois L 69-74 43%    
  Dec 01, 2018 84   @ Colorado L 69-76 19%    
  Dec 05, 2018 94   Arkansas L 73-79 40%    
  Dec 08, 2018 258   Sam Houston St. W 73-68 74%    
  Dec 16, 2018 134   South Dakota L 73-76 49%    
  Dec 22, 2018 189   @ Long Beach St. W 79-78 41%    
  Dec 30, 2018 93   New Mexico St. L 69-75 39%    
  Jan 02, 2019 139   @ UNLV L 77-80 30%    
  Jan 05, 2019 91   @ Fresno St. L 69-75 22%    
  Jan 08, 2019 212   Air Force W 72-70 66%    
  Jan 12, 2019 92   New Mexico L 76-82 40%    
  Jan 19, 2019 144   @ Utah St. L 72-74 33%    
  Jan 23, 2019 7   @ Nevada L 70-88 4%    
  Jan 26, 2019 91   Fresno St. L 69-75 40%    
  Jan 29, 2019 95   Boise St. L 70-76 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 212   @ Air Force W 72-70 47%    
  Feb 06, 2019 7   Nevada L 70-88 11%    
  Feb 09, 2019 173   @ Wyoming L 78-79 39%    
  Feb 12, 2019 45   San Diego St. L 68-79 26%    
  Feb 20, 2019 321   @ San Jose St. W 74-65 69%    
  Feb 23, 2019 173   Wyoming L 78-79 59%    
  Feb 27, 2019 95   @ Boise St. L 70-76 23%    
  Mar 02, 2019 92   @ New Mexico L 76-82 22%    
  Mar 05, 2019 144   Utah St. L 72-74 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 139   UNLV L 77-80 50%    
Projected Record 12.5 - 17.5 6.7 - 11.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.1 0.8 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.5 3.8 1.0 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.1 3.9 1.0 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.8 5.1 1.1 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.9 6.2 4.4 1.1 0.0 16.6 9th
10th 0.4 2.3 4.6 5.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 15.6 10th
11th 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 6.8 11th
Total 0.6 2.2 4.5 7.3 10.1 11.3 13.3 12.4 10.7 8.9 7.3 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 97.1% 0.0    0.0
16-2 72.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 49.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 23.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.2% 45.8% 5.6% 40.2% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.6%
15-3 0.4% 42.4% 5.4% 36.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 39.1%
14-4 0.9% 36.8% 14.7% 22.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 25.9%
13-5 1.7% 23.2% 10.6% 12.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 14.1%
12-6 3.1% 8.3% 6.1% 2.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.3%
11-7 5.2% 4.0% 3.1% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.9%
10-8 7.3% 2.7% 2.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0%
9-9 8.9% 1.3% 1.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8
8-10 10.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.6
7-11 12.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4
6-12 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3
5-13 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.3
4-14 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.1
3-15 7.3% 7.3
2-16 4.5% 4.5
1-17 2.2% 2.2
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.0% 1.2% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.0 0.8%